Monday, November 05, 2012

Election Predictions 2012

For the last couple of weeks I've been fascinated with the STATE polls coming out for the election. Let me be clear: NOT the national polls, but the much more narrow state polls conducted usually by people and organizations within a very specific region. Historically, they appear to be more accurate and less biased, to me. As opposed to the national polls, which generally have a slight leaning in one direction or the other. So I pay far more attention to the state polls. Especially since they don't appear to get much media attention.

Based solely on my reading of the state polls, and focusing solely on the SWING STATES, it doesn't look like too many states are actually close. The tightest races only appear to be in Virginia and Florida. 

I know what you're saying, "But Jon, what about Ohio! Romney has been picking up momentum since the first debate, there are lots of undecided voters who traditional vote against the incumbent, and women are going to vote for the economy and not their subjective rights!" 

Hey, whatever. I'm only looking at polls. Not asking specific questions of specific people. And if you look at the 14 polls that came out today, 13 of them give Obama the lead, and only one says it is a tie. Exactly NONE of the Ohio polls put Romney in the lead. I do not think that indicates any kind of a tie. OH, PA, WI, NV, and CO all show similar tracks: Obama wins. 

FL and VA have more mixed signals, but they slightly (less than 1%!) favor Romney. And North Carolina favors Romeny. 

"So, Jon, what are you saying?" you ask.

Here's what I'm saying: In the critical swing states, Romney will win NC, Romney barely wins FL and VA, but Obama will win the others, including OH, PA,  NV, and CO. Obama wins the electoral vote. 

"But, JON!! The electoral college is a dinosaur and needs to be put out of our misery! What about the popular vote?" you cry. 

Given the fact that the Republicans have lost the popular vote in four out of five of the last elections (Bush v Kerry was the only popular victory since Reagan!) I think Obama wins by 0.5% - 0.8%.

"Yeah, but what if you're wrong, smart guy?"

Romney could still win. But the bookies give him only 1 in 4 chances. I'd give him as little as 1 in 10. That still means he'd win once if the elections were held ten times. And maybe 2012 is that once. If Obama does NOT get the young vote (like he did in history measure in 2008) then he could lose. If women and minorities do what Fox News says they're going to do, then Obama could lose. If there really are hordes of Undecided voters and they really vote against the incumbent, as Fox News says, then Obama could lose. So I'm not saying that Obama will win. I'm just saying it is much more likely. If he loses, I'll admit I bet on the wrong guy.

And, no, I'm not saying all of this because Obama is "my guy." Ron Paul would be "my guy." John Hunstman would be "my guy." Obama, is not my guy. However, the polls clearly favor him. Despite all the cries of "it's going to be close" that we hear from the media. 

But who knows? Until this time tomorrow!
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