You Have No Privacy. Why Are You Surprised?

In January of 1999, Scott McNealy, co-founder of Sun Microsystems infamously said, "You have zero privacy anyway. Get over it." He was talking about Intel's decision not to include tracking information inside of their Pentium III chips. More than a decade ago, McNealy already knew.

A year later, in mid-2000, EarthLink was forced to incorporate the National Security Administration's Carnivore system, giving the government access to every piece of email going through EarthLink's network. That was before 9/11. Before the USA PATRIOT ACT. And even back then, the American government was quietly

Flash forward to January of 2006. Given exponentially more power, the case of  Hepting vs AT&T revealed that the NSA was no longer monitoring just email, but every bit of data going through AT&T's network, including texts and phone calls.

Which brings us to the present. 2013. And we learn that not only does AT&T continue to freely share everything with the NSA, but so does Sprint, Verizon, T-Mobile, the major credit card companies, and many (if not all) of the major Internet companies such as Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Facebook.

And why, pray tell, do they do this? Quite simple: because there is a "war on terror." And we have to be vigilant in our pursuit of those beard, invisible, cave-born, religious ninjas who hate our freedom and way of life. Or so the story goes.

If you don't like it, then you either have something to hide, or you're on their side. Or so the story goes.

And if you want to keep your freedom, your way of life, and live The American Dream, you have to sacrifice your privacy in order to do so. Or so the story goes.

You have no privacy. You haven't for more than a decade. Why are you surprised?

Not So Close Afterall

Everything I heard from both sides of the media was a paraphrase of: It is going to be a close race. 

First: It wasn't a close race. Second: I was wrong. Third: Many people were far more wrong than I was. 

Barack Obama was re-elected in a crushing mandate of a victory. The momentum Fox News promised for Romney did not appear. The Undecided voters Fox News promised would vote against the incumbent did not vote against the incumbent. Women and Latinos did not vote "for the economy" instead of "for their rights." The youth vote showed up. And hard-working, middle class white folks came out against Romney. Almost everything I heard Carl Rove say for the past week was absolutely wrong. (Despite his Ross Perot-esque attempts to explain his version of voodoo political math where uncounted ballots from urban minority districts were somehow going to turn the tide in Romney's favor in Ohio.) 

However, I'd like to openly confess my predictions were wrong. I predicted Romney would take FL, NC, and VA. In fact, he did not take VA and it looks like he may not take FL. He  is only the clear winner in NC. 

I was also wrong about the popular vote. That wasn't close, either. I predicted 0.05% - 0.08% for Obama. The counting won't be complete for a while, but the media is predicting it could be as much as 1.5% for Obama.

Despite the explosive outcries of "No!" and a myriad of tears at his headquarters when Fox News called the election for Obama, Mitt Romney had a gracious concession speech. He challenged his supporters to pray for the President, pray for the country, and work with their opponents to cross the divide in order to help restore the county. 

I propose we all line up, give each other high fives, and say: Good game. Regardless of which team won, it was a good game. 

Now let's clean up and go home!

Election Predictions 2012

For the last couple of weeks I've been fascinated with the STATE polls coming out for the election. Let me be clear: NOT the national polls, but the much more narrow state polls conducted usually by people and organizations within a very specific region. Historically, they appear to be more accurate and less biased, to me. As opposed to the national polls, which generally have a slight leaning in one direction or the other. So I pay far more attention to the state polls. Especially since they don't appear to get much media attention.

Based solely on my reading of the state polls, and focusing solely on the SWING STATES, it doesn't look like too many states are actually close. The tightest races only appear to be in Virginia and Florida. 

I know what you're saying, "But Jon, what about Ohio! Romney has been picking up momentum since the first debate, there are lots of undecided voters who traditional vote against the incumbent, and women are going to vote for the economy and not their subjective rights!" 

Hey, whatever. I'm only looking at polls. Not asking specific questions of specific people. And if you look at the 14 polls that came out today, 13 of them give Obama the lead, and only one says it is a tie. Exactly NONE of the Ohio polls put Romney in the lead. I do not think that indicates any kind of a tie. OH, PA, WI, NV, and CO all show similar tracks: Obama wins. 

FL and VA have more mixed signals, but they slightly (less than 1%!) favor Romney. And North Carolina favors Romeny. 

"So, Jon, what are you saying?" you ask.

Here's what I'm saying: In the critical swing states, Romney will win NC, Romney barely wins FL and VA, but Obama will win the others, including OH, PA,  NV, and CO. Obama wins the electoral vote. 

"But, JON!! The electoral college is a dinosaur and needs to be put out of our misery! What about the popular vote?" you cry. 

Given the fact that the Republicans have lost the popular vote in four out of five of the last elections (Bush v Kerry was the only popular victory since Reagan!) I think Obama wins by 0.5% - 0.8%.

"Yeah, but what if you're wrong, smart guy?"

Romney could still win. But the bookies give him only 1 in 4 chances. I'd give him as little as 1 in 10. That still means he'd win once if the elections were held ten times. And maybe 2012 is that once. If Obama does NOT get the young vote (like he did in history measure in 2008) then he could lose. If women and minorities do what Fox News says they're going to do, then Obama could lose. If there really are hordes of Undecided voters and they really vote against the incumbent, as Fox News says, then Obama could lose. So I'm not saying that Obama will win. I'm just saying it is much more likely. If he loses, I'll admit I bet on the wrong guy.

And, no, I'm not saying all of this because Obama is "my guy." Ron Paul would be "my guy." John Hunstman would be "my guy." Obama, is not my guy. However, the polls clearly favor him. Despite all the cries of "it's going to be close" that we hear from the media. 

But who knows? Until this time tomorrow!

Her Reality

I'm not fascinated by the political affiliation of this shirt wearer.

I'm not fascinated by the gender or economic strata of this shirt wearer.

I'm fascinated that all the things written on her shirt are true, in her reality. That she holds those words to be truths. That they are battle cries in her private war against the forces of Socialism and Fascist Obamacare. 

I'm fascinated that anyone, anywhere could believe Obama's departure will magically produce the following results:

• Sixteen trillion dollars will magically fly into the Federal treasury and we'll be able to pay off six decades of accrued debt.
• No future presidents will ever make use of Czars.
• 105,000,000 Americans will be re-employed .
• Too Big To Fail businesses will be allowed to fail.
• Homeowners who have not paid their mortgages will not have to give up their unpaid homes.
• Gasoline prices will decided they've been too high too long and return themselves to $1.25/gallon.
• $84,000,000,000 worth of mortgages held by Freddie & Fannie will be forgiven so that those two organizations can close down quickly and quietly.
• All the Muslims will decide their dreams of freedom and justice in America were just false, hollow promises, so they'll go on a one-way pilgrimage back to the Holy Land. 
• And all these things coming true will make this a better, freer, happier country, like it was before Obama self-elected himself.

Somewhere, the Founding Fathers weep. And if it were not so damn funny, I'd weep, too.

Current Distractions

Bieber's Non-Baby. Hannah Montana's Growing Waistline. KK's 72 Day Marriage. Missing Baby Lisa. Cain's Groping. Cain's Other Groping. Cain's Other Other Groping. Maks & Hope Voted Off. Dr Murray Killed MJ. Another Twilight Movie. Solyndra. Millionaire Basketball Players Want More. Broken Heart Syndrome. Facebook Spammers. Penn State Riots. iPod. iPhone.

iWhatever.

The Ruse Is About To Be Revealed

How quick that green worm turned. The illusionary euphoria of "the market" dispelled like a cheap parlor trick. The hedge fund wizards' bluff of pretending debt can be infinitely extended called by the Greek President himself who went All In, issuing a surprise public referendum on the pseudo-enforced referendum deal.

Maybe Greece will just accept default and go their own way, much like Iceland in late 2008. The Greeks can't pay their debt now, haven't been able to pay it for more than a decade, and even a 50% reduction by their creditors won't help. Any deal they accept now just prolongs their suffering.

But why all the drama and fury by the weeping wizards of Wall Street? Because they know the ruse is about to be revealed. That the financial emperors have no clothes. And even less money. Much like the burning hordes of Greece, the market mavens are all in debt to their red-rimmed eyeballs and have no way of paying their own liabilities once the collection plate gets passed around the room.

If Greece goes Tango Uniform, failing to meet its obligations, then a hailstorm of counter-party risk, in the form of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will need to be paid out. Computerized triggers will get pulled. Bank accounts will open. And suddenly several million CDS holders scream "BINGO!" because they're owed several trillion (yes, TRILLION!) dollars on their risky investments. Except nobody is excited. Nobody is getting ready to collect their filthy lucre. No screams of bingo. Or triggers being pulled. Instead, the panic has started anew.

It is very likely that even though CDS have been piling up for more than a decade, few (if any) of them will be cashed in. Why? Because of the other end of the ruse, the other half of the lie: the so-called owners of the CDS never actually paid real money for those CDS they're clutching so tightly. Instead, they just promised to pay real money at some future date, which never arrived. No money has ever changed hands, and those risky investments aren't worth the paper their printed on (if they're printed at all!) because the owners can produce no receipt proving payment. So the effective worth of all those "investments" is actually close to zero.

And that is what this crisis is about: the fiction of money. There is none. No hedges. No bonds. No deposits. No protection. No backing. No insurance. No real cash. Nothing. Just a punch-drunk collection of grinning frat boys electronically exchanging nods and winks and promising to pay the beer tab next week. Like they promised last week. And for ten years worth of weeks before that. But now the tab is so ungodly huge that it dwarfs the Gross Domestic Production of many small nations. And the only thing the frat boys can produce for payment are rancid burps and well-manicured beer bellies.

Meanwhile, all their cars and houses in the Hamptons andregularly scheduled pay-per-views of Ultimate Fighting Championship have been funded by our IRAs, our pension funds, and the hollow shells of our 401Ks. Every penny and every real dollar we "invested" in the magic show of "the market" was instantly converted into ones and zeros then mixed into a toxic slurry of computer generated financial vehicles like collateralized debt obligations, naked shorts, fault resistant traunches, and other indecipherable forms of financial derivatives. We're all competitors in some pre-apocalyptic version of Thunderdome: two men enter, one man leaves! Except in this twisted version of our new reality: your so-called retirement enters, and nothing leaves.

Maybe Greece has seen the truth and they are going to accept their fate. They would rather reject the deal of 50% debt reduction, walk away from Thunderdome, and take their chances at starting over from scratch. That is what is spooking the exulted wizards of Wall Street.

Meanwhile, the rest of us rubes cling to the steel bars and stare, slack-jawed and clueless, as Dr Dealgood recites his all-too-familiar lines:

Listen all! This is the truth of it. Fighting leads to killing, and killing gets to warring. And that was damn near the death of us all. Look at us now! Busted up, and everyone talking about hard rain! But we've learned, by the dust of them all... Bartertown learned. Now, when men get to fighting, it happens here! And it finishes here! Two men enter; one man leaves!

Magicians & Drachma & Bluffers, oh my!

The magicians on Wall Street celebrated with a furious stock market rally today. Their jubilation grew from their newfound hopes of fooling the American people into once again thinking there's an end in sight to our Great Recession.

"Markets up after Greece deal." and "Greece Worries Ebbs" causing investors to "give a thumbs up" and ask Siri to dump more imaginary money into the still-over-inflated Dow Jones. Gaining nearly 3% in a single day.

The world markets are playing a game of three card monte and Greece's unplumbed cauldron of debt is the pea they're trying frantically to conceal.  European and American vaults are morbidly obese with Greek bonds. About $3,000,000,000,000 (that's trillions!) worth of toxic, unsecured Drachma. Stinking up the place like rancid moussaka. Greece is a drunken albatross dangling from Europe's neck. Nobody wants it. Nobody can save it. But they're too scared to let it slip into the Aegean Sea. So instead of cutting off the Euro's dead limbs, the magicians are trying to convince us that debt can revolve forever. But the other members of the Euro currency union (with the exception of Germany) cannot pay what they owe. And, like their big fat cousins,  they teeter only a single Facebook update away from mob violence, political revolution, and perhaps even armed conflict fueled by cheap French cigarettes and little cups of seemingly-endless cappuccino.

Not to be outdone, politicians have taken to bluffing at the poker table while wagering the economy of an entire nation. The Republicans did it this past summer, bluffing during the tax talks, pushing the United States to the edge of financial default (with the rest of the world to follow) over whether or not to repeal the Bush tax cuts. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (their version of a President) did it today. She looked across the table and told the bankers to either accept a 50% write down of Greece's debt, or be prepared for the country's total financial collapse.

Hours later, Wall Street opens, the magicians conjure their best illusions, and suckers around the globe invest billions more in a failing system.

Oh my.

Justice Has Been Done

Last night, as I creep into bed to read and eventually fall asleep, Cindy says: "Osama Bin Laden is dead." 

"That has been rumored for a while, baby. Bad liver transplant. Buried in Pakistan. Or Yemen somewhere..."

"No," she says. "Obama was just on TV. He made the announcement."

And there it was. "Usama Bin Laden is dead," on Fox News. (Fox uses "Usama," now, so they're less likely to make a certain verbal faux pas.) The streets of New York and D.C. fill with kids singing "God Bless America." Geraldo stalking in front of the White House, Hi-Fiving weepy strangers, and hugging wide-eyed soldiers. Everyone and their mother just as proud as a peacock that finally, FINALLY, Osama Bin Laden is dead. 

And today. Lo and behold. Suddenly the rest of our woes are gone, too! Cheap, limitless, sweet sweet oil flows freely again. The unemployed masses found high-paying jobs with excellent insurance and a golden pension. Bailout-fattened banks forgave millions of ponziesque foreclosures. Our crumbling infrastructure fixed itself, for free! And that whole fourteen trillion dollar debt issue got swept under the rug for another generation or three.

Well. Not really. I made up all that other stuff. But, hey... Justice has been done!

2010 Predictions Revisited

I shared a couple of predictions with friends last year. Thought I'd revisit them and see how well or how poorly I did. Have to follow up later this week with some new predictions for 2011.

1. Prediction: Real Bank Reform - I was hoping the current administration would come up with substantial reform, akin to the safety of Glass-Steagall Act. Instead we got a nudge nudge wink wink and flimsy reform that does nothing to diminish the power of exotic financial grifts such as the explotation of interest rate differentials, arbitrages, naked short-sales, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps, and other swindles based which create no value whatsoever.
   
   Grade: Pass, but barely.
   
2. Prediction: U6 Unemployment stays above 15% - Our elected officials love to diminish the true depth of unemployment by citing the U3 report. U3 measures the number of people actively collecting unemployment benefits. But once benefits are gone, a person is off the U3 list. So there are millions of people without a job, but the government doesn't care to mention them and the media doesn't make light of the scam. Real unemployment is measured by the U6 report. And for 2010, the U6 report revealed not only did unemployment stay above 15%, it was actually above 16% the whole year.
   
   Grade: Pass.
   
3. Prediction: The Great Depression V2.0 becomes a classic "double dip recession" in 2010 - I thought the lapse of "Cash for Clunkers" and the end of "First Time Homebuyer" cash would make GDP tumble into negative territory. But that didn't happen. Even though unemployment stayed high, foreclosures stayed high, and the general mood of the country was poor, we did not technically re-enter a depression.
   
   Grade: Fail.
   
4. Prediction: DOW drops into 5000 territory - Not even close, here. The Fed did a great job propping up Wall Street fatcats while 1 in 6 people were unemployed, 1 in 8 people will deal with or have dealt with a foreclosure, and 1 in 6 kids live below the poverty level. The illusion of growth was maintained and investors continued to play Three Card Monte with our 401Ks and pension funds.
   
   Grade: Fail.
   
5. Prediction: - Real Estate continues to suck in 2010 - Inventories went up. Foreclosures went up. Prices went down. In my world, that all amounts to a big dish of suck.
   
   Grade: Pass.
   
6. Prediction: The current administration continues to miss the mark - I figured the POTUS would continue to disappoint me in 2010. Couple of good moves (Don't Ask, Don't Tell, 9/11 responders.) Bunch of bad moves (Flawed Health Care Reform, deficits, tax failure, financial reform failure.) Overall, I personally feel like he missed the mark, at least by my measure.
   
   Grade: Pass
   
7. Prediction: The minority party continues to block and jeer - Probably not a fair prediction because the minority party is always going to do this. However, one day our politicians will work together instead of against each other. Not likely during my lifetime.
   
   Grade: Pass

5 out of 7. That's not bad. Right? Anyway, welcome aboard, 2011. Glad you could join us. Don't worry, I'll make some predictions for you, too. In due time, though. In due time.

Join Or Die

Old Ben Franklin drew his Join Or Die political cartoon in 1754. During Franklin's day, folks believed that you could cut a snake into pieces but somehow magically restore it if you put the pieces together before sunset. Franklin was making a point about the importance of a unified country.

256 years later, we've  forgotten that point. Left versus Right. North versus South versus East versus West. Rich versus Middle class versus the growing masses of Poor. And don't try to fathom the unmentioned racial collisions.

Need an example? Look at our modern election cycles. They are no longer about finding and voting for a candidate we can support. We've degraded to the point where our officials are elected simply because we hate them less than we hate their opponent.

I'm not even paying attention to tonight's results. Doesn't matter who won. Nobody won. We are all going to lose. The illusionary changing of the guard will produce none of the results we're being promised. By either side.

Here are some predictions for our Disunited States:

• Government won't get any smaller
• Spending won't get controlled
• Rights won't be returned
• No entitlements will be diminished
• and taxes for the Middle Class won't be substantially lowered

I'll check in again next year to verify, but I don't see anything getting better. The best we can do is hope it doesn't get worse. And we've seen what happens when we put faith in Hope or Change.

When It Rains

All weekend. And today. Rain. Down here in South Hell, when it rains, it pours. As if the sky is broken.

Shakespearian stuff. The gloom of oil creeping across our horizon. This whole ungodly Race To The Courthouse as people and lawyers line up to collect from BP. The oil giant pointing their fingers at the owners of the rig. The rig owners pointing their fingers at Haliburton, who poured the concrete. And Haliburton claiming they did what they were paid to do, using the regulated specs, which was all approved by some slackjawed inspectors. All of them stumbling over each other to dodge the blame and proclaim their innocence in this disaster.

In the background, Greece is in a shambles. The European Union & International Monetary Fund are printing up a $1T check that is backed by empty promises and buckets of spit. America still fights two wars. State governments are making cutbacks and layoffs faster than the paint on their ever-shrinking budgets can dry. While banks (which we bailed out) and oil companies are making record profits. (BP alone cleared $5.6B in profit just last quarter.)

When it rains, it pours. And we can't build arks quick enough or big enough.

The Fix Is On

Watching C-SPAN. Bunch of financial executives getting grilled by Congressmen. Villains questioning other villains. A grand, farcical comedy put on to appease the sheeple. There won't be any serious reform. Nobody in power wants it. Obama has surrounded himself with former Wall Street dupes. Geither, Poulson, Gary Gensler, Rahm Emanuel, Mark Patterson, Larry Summers. So on. So forth. All alumni from the Blood Sucking Vampire Squid (aka Goldman Sachs.)

Further proof? Check the stock market. All the mavens and quants and brokers see the covert writing on the wall. While all the mewling sheeple were watching Senator Levin bravely taunting Dan Sparks by repeatedly saying "shitty deal," on C-SPAN, the traders bought more and more of Goldman's stock. The result? A one-day gain of $549M in the investment giant's market value.

We're watching smoke and mirrors. Wall Street has already bribed their way into a successful end game. The fix is on.

On Healthcare Reform

America wants to wave a magic wand and magically be able to do several extremely difficult feats:

1. Cover "everyone." Unfortunately  though we've turned into a country where a significant percentage of the population does not want to spend "their money" on "those people" who just want "something for nothing." The people who want it call it "universal healthcare." The people who don't call it, "socialism."
   
2. Provide more options. Which could mean less time in the ER to some folks. Or quicker access to more specialists for other people.
   
3. Provide cheaper options. Everyone wants to pay less.

Here's how I look at covering everyone: sick Americans hurt everyone at some level. If we're less productive that we already are, we're worth less. And some sick folks have this nasty ability to make OTHER Americans sick. We should fix everyone. It is better for all of us. Oh, oh! "They" shouldn't get my tax dollars. "They" are getting too many "free rides." And it is just another step toward "socialism." If we're going to abolish all forms of social programs, we're going to have to take it beyond socialized medicine. We're going to have to remove other programs like... the police... the post office... our roads... the fire department... the Army... the Navy... the Airforce... the Marines. All of those are social programs And every American benefits from them. 

As for money, that's a joke. As a country, we spend more money per person to get less medical coverage than any other country on Earth. We're spend 15% of our GDP on health care. We spend 5% on "defense." And healthcare-related deaths are far and away the #1 killer in America.

And here's a real crazy idea: Be a healthy country! Promote healthy eating habits. Promote healthy activity. Promote pro-active medical habits.We got a cigarette smoking POTUS with cholesterol issues. Let's start there. How about our leader shows us that personal healthcare starts with personal responsibility? Maybe then we'll see costs and lines go down. 

Damaged

A brief interlude from the complaints about myself to complain about the soiled, damaged hobo that America has become.

First, I'd like to dwell on the fact that the "stock market" it up, all the banking Executives on Wall Street are gleefully looking forward to record-breaking bonuses measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and the current White House administration is claiming: the worst is over, the recession is over, and happy days are here again.

In the meanwhile, US unemployment, no matter how you measure it, U3, U6 or SGS, has gone up about 100% in the last 20 months, and 60% in the past year alone.One in five Americans is unemployed or underemployed. One in eight families are on food stamps. Over one hundred thousand households are filing for bankruptcy every month. And one in eight families can not afford to pay their mortgage this month.

And yet, our leaders, our President, and everyone in the financial system is telling us the recession is over? And they're able to say it with a straight face?

Second, I'd like to elaborate on the current administration's false notion that we can achieve and maintain some kind of "recovery." Recover to a society that spends 110% of its annual income? Recover to a society that spends $600/ft on a flimsy McHouse that's made as cheaply and quickly as possible? Recover to a system where a painter making $30,000 per year can buy a half million dollar house, fill it with 60" plasma screens, and park three Escalades out front that he uses to buy cheeseburgers, glazed donuts, and 90oz Super Sized jugs of Coke for each meal?

For the record, we've depleted all of our cheap, clean, easy-to-reach natural resources. We've all-but-destroyed our manufacturing base. Our national infrastructure is on life support. We continue to reward Big Business for out-sourcing our Knowledge Based Businesses. We continue to encourage Big Business to avoid paying taxes that our local and federal governments desperately need just to stay afloat.

So please, explain to me in simple, easy-to-follow terms, what our recovered society is going to look like, and how can we possible get there, from here? Get sock puppets if you have them, because I don't see how anything short of the Second Coming is going to do anything other keep our heads above the dark waters.

Third, I'm curious to know why our national media outlets continue to distract us from the real issues. Tiger Woods wrecking his Cadillac doesn't affect the national debt that has a rocket on its ass and is diving straight up into the stratosphere where only our children will be able to find it. Two reality TV shysters sneaking into a White House dinner (where they could have BOUGHT a ticket) does nothing to bring our tired troops home or reconcile the two TRILLION dollars we've airlifted over to Iraq in order to find some sneaky WMD that have elluded us since 2004. And why are do we blindly accept the idea that a new "surge" of 30,000 troops (at a cost of close to $1M/year per person, or $30,000,000,000/year for the "surge,") in A'Stan will work when every report says that we should empower the local tribes, enlist Afghans eager to fight the bad guys, don't force them to support a corrupt central government or bow to foreign forces - and keep picking off Al Qaeda with Special Operations troops and drones.

We're all damaged. Mentally. Physically. Spiritually. Our nation teeters on the edge of the abyss. But our leaders tell us the recession is over. Our President says we trust him, we can all get better cars, better houses, free health care, and a free college education. And our corporate-controlled media companies tell us to smile and ignore the men behind the curtain.

Wake up. Wake up! WAKE UP!

Modern Political Insanity

Einstein once said: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

And that is exactly what we have now: modern political insanity. Upon reading the actual text of HR1 (the bill flushing another $819,000,000,000 down the drain) the insanity is all too apparent. Our elected officials intend to use more money to do everything we've already done. And they expect that throwing away another trillion will have different results than the first trillion (or so) that we've thrown away.

Here are some of the highlights that caught my eye:

• It aims to try (again) to loosen monetary conditions. This has proven to be a complete failure. The last bajillion dollars we "loaned" to "investment banks" only went in their vaults to collect dust OR in the Executives' bonus package, OR toward the purchase of other banks. The only thing that did NOT HAPPEN was the loosening of monetary conditions.
  
• The bill promises (again) to give Americans some spending money. Unfortunately, nobody can remember a similar attempt in the second quarter of 2008, where $170B was sent back to the taxpayers. Only 17% of recipients "spent" the money. The other 83% of us (including me) either put it in savings, or paid off existing debt. The vast majority of the money was NOT "spent," and did not jumpstart the economy. 
• It allocates $4.5 billion to the Department of Defense. Not that we needed to add to the existing $514.5B 2009 Defense Budget!
  
• It allocates $900M to Homeland Security. Not that we needed to add to the $132B 2009 Homeland Security Budget! (Which is already >10% higher than 2008's budget!)

So here is what I predict:

• Congress somehow thinks they can outsmart the banking Executives. Our politicians honestly believe they are smarter and more devious than seasoned financial professionals who have already stolen several hundred billion dollars of taxpayer money. Those Executives already got away with the biggest theft of public funds in American history without any punishment. But our elected officials promise that things will be different next time. Congress says they will be able to hold Executive feet to the flames and "make them starting loaning money." Another trillion or so will go to the "financial system." And that trillion or so will disappear. Just like last time.
  
  
• Congress will try to pacify the sheeple by giving us a thousand or so of our own tax dollars back. We won't spend it on a Ford or a house or a Blue Ray Player. Instead we'll bank it or pay off debt. Just like last time. And Congress will shrug their shoulders and feign tears and pretend they don't know why their valiant efforts didn't "jump start" the economy. Just like last time.
  
  
• Once "the states," get ANY amount of money that is given for "infrastructure projects," that money will disappear, too. Almost every state is suffering from deficits. They will happily accept taxpayer money. But it won't go to roads or bridges or anything else it is earmarked for. And it certainly won't go toward 3,000,000 - 4,000,000 new jobs.
  
  
• The Department Of Homeland Security (or some faction of the federal government) may end up being the only source of "new jobs." Of course, it will be ineffective and inefficient and eventually overages and budget cuts will give up some or all of the new positions.
  
  
• Next summer, once our current surplus of oil is depleted, foreign (ie: Chinese and Indian) energy consumption continues to rise, and the continued production decline by OPEC of crude oil take hold, American gas prices will approach their previous levels.
  
  
• And finally, in the middle of the year, we'll have torn through TARP V2.0. Everyone we elected to fix it will say "we tried," and we'll line up TARP V3.0 and TARP V4.0.

We'll see what happens by July. 

What would I have done differently? Reduced the Defense Budget. (Nobody other than China can raise any significant armed forces against us, and China needs us to be their primary consumer of their products!) Invest in projects that REDUCE dependancy on gasoline (ie: increasing spending the creation of roads only encourages more driving.)  Increase spending on national broadband capacity. Increase the tax credit for ANY home buyer, not just "first time" home buyers. Increase spending on revitalizing small agriculture, transitioning people back to organic food industries. And last, but not least: let the investment banks go through bankruptcy (let the bond holders and investors carry the burden, not the tax payers!)

Our elected officials want to try the same things that have already failed. I say: stop the insanity! Try something new. 

But I herd electric sheep. What do I know?

Iceland officially gives up the ghost.

If you want a glimpse of what could (note I said COULD) happen to America, check out Iceland, or what is left of it.

Late last year, Iceland pretty much confessed that it was completely bankrupt and its financial system was insolvent. First, the local banks were nationalized. Then Iceland's stock market collapsed. Next they froze their currency rate. As a result, almost every other nation stopped trading / exchanging the Icelandic króna. Finally the locals (all 300,000 of them!) refused to do business with their "new bank." They took out everything they could, and put their money in other national banks. Leaving a complete vacuum in their wake. Eventually, the country had nothing left.

Flash forward to the present, and today the government of Iceland has abandoned ship. A new new government will have to be formed. They have to rely on the International Monetary Fund for a "loan" to get them through their new meager existence. And eventually the assets of the entire country will have to be re-evaluated and used as collateral for a re-fi on the whole nation. In the end, all the citizens will bear the load. The debt will linger for decades, or more, to come.

So. In less than a generation, Iceland has gone from one of the wealthiest countries in Europe to a nation of paupers dependent upon handouts.

To recap: Iceland bank were nationalized. (Sound familiar?) Their stock market collapsed. (Sound familiar?) And then there was a run on the banks. (Hrmmm....) Finally resulting in an abandonment of their government (One can hope...)

Could it happen here? Probably not. But a year ago, the Icelanders thought it was impossible, too.

And we certainly seem to be sliding down a similar slippery slope.

Unmentioned Facts

So my friends on The Right ping me a couple of times today. Rapid fire a barage of "I Told You So." Point me toward articles saying: Barrack should reconsider closing Gitmo.

The short version is: A prisoner named Said Ali al-Shihr was freed from Guantánamo, sent back to Saudi Arabia, and is NOW accused of being the second-ranking Al Qaeda leader in Yemen. And taking this to some logical Right Wing conclusion, we should reverse Obama's recent executive order and detain these rest of the prisoners indefinitely.

The thinking appears to go something along the lines of:

1. "We" released al-Shihr from Gitmo
2.   Al-Shihr is now associating with Al Qaeda
   
3. "Obama" wants to release everyone from Gitmo
4. Everyone we release in the future will associate with Al Qaeda
5. Therefore we shouldn't release them, so they won't associate with Al Qaeda

While I agree that we should not release anyone we are certain will turn around and immediately attack us, I think it is important to consider a few unmentioned facts:

1. Al-Shihr was released a year ago.
   
2. Al-Shihr did not have any sort of trial.
3. Al-Shihr was investigated / detained / interogated for four years. At the end of that time, his "handlers" in Gitmo decided that he was safe to release. Not four minutes of researching this action. Not four weeks, not four months, but four years worth of contemplating what to do with him. Everyone involved contributed to his release.I doubt it was a choice made flippantly. 

Now when I consider everything, I'm left with two possible conclusions:

• Either Al-Shihr spent more than twelve hundred days under constant observation and still managed to cleverly fooling dozens (if not hundreds (if not thousands)) of intelligent people and convinced them that he wasn't a threat to our nation.
• Or four years of research and "enhanced interrogation techniques" proved he wasn't a threat before we capured him (Al-Shihr claimed he was a carpet merchant and traveled to Iran for supplies) but... he became a threat after being subjected to prolonged exposure to American hospitality at Gitmo.

Either Gitmo is a failure at identifying bad guys, or it is producing bad guys.

Neither option has to do with Obama's recent executive decision. But both options make me agree with that decision.

Don't Fix What Ain't Broke

This is a tightly guarded secret. Nobody in the media will report it: the American economy is not broken. 

Sure, almost every measurable metric is down: consumer confidence, spending, travel, and so on, and so forth. But I don't think there is anything wrong with it considering that instead of spending, Americans are finally putting something into their personal savings.

Sure, a part time house painter making $20,000 per year can't get a mortgage to buy a 900 square foot shack in CA for $350,000. But I don't see a problem with that.

Sure, America isn't buying 17,000,000 cars a year any more. And we aren't chewing through 1.15 billion cell phones a year any more. But I don't see a problem with buying a new car every ten years and a new cell phone every two or three.

America isn't broken. We are finally saturated. After a decade of over-buying, over-spending, over-consuming, we have stopped being frivolous.We don't need four cars, eight TVs, a media room, or a TIVO that can record every episode of Sapranos and stream it to a four hundred dollar iPhone.

Our politicians don't want us to save. They want us to take out the fattest mortgage possible and build another Super-Sized McMansion.  They don't want us to conserve. They want us to consume. Spend. Spend. Spend. Deplete our every resource. Debt is good. Debt is American.


It isn't a recession. It is a return to normallacy. But the media won't say that. And our elected officials deny it with every breath.

I have a suggestion for them: don't fix what ain't broke. The sheeple are fleeing the Imaginary Land of Milk & Honey. They're finding more familiar pastures. Less expensive ones.

I, for one, am not looking back.

Riddle Me This

Riddle me this: Why is it acceptable to pay for all the mistakes of rich bankers but it is anti-American to nurture our less-fortunate Americans?

Riddle me this: Why do GM, Ford, Citibank, and Bank Of America deserve our help, but 45,000,000 uninsured Americans don't?

When trillions of our taxpayer dollars go toward the purchase of financial institutions, millions of which are given away as bonuses and none of it can be accounted for, The Right says "we have to do it," and they call it: NATIONALISM. They say, "we're nationalizing the banking system," giving it a green light.

When we propose any amount of money to go toward improving the health care system, providing for the less fortunate, ensuring that every single American has access to medical care, and we provide for the health and well-being of all our children, The Right says, "We can't do that!" and they call it: SOCIALISM. They compare it to the Communist Soviet Union. They declare it is anti-American.

I'd rather insure a child than give a CEO another million dollar bonus. I'd rather ensure that a WWII Veteran has access to health care than fund another renovation for an Auto Executive's weekend house in the Hamptons. I'd rather preserve life than perpetuate greed.

But what do I know? I'm just an angry, aging, middle class computer goon. And I can't even answer my own riddles.

Realized The Dream

"Inauguration" is from the Latin word: inauguratus. Which is "to practice augury." And, of course, augury is "divination from auspices or omens." So by performing an inauguration, we are divining the future. As a country gathering to shape our own future. Putting our fate in one man. Hoping, perhaps praying, that he'll lead us from this new-found gloom of ours. Back into the light.

These are interesting times to be alive. For the first time in my life, I watched a live inauguration. (I never cared enough to do it in the past.) And today, we all watched Barrack Obama take his 35-word oath of office. Cindy and the kids did it from school. I watched online, via CNN + Facebook. Live footage combined with live commentary from hundreds of thousands of people across the globe. All of us taking part in the most historic inauguration in American history since the very first one was held two hundred and twenty years ago. How many lives were connected for those hours? How many people smiled?

The stock market plunged 4% (the worst ever loss during a swearing-in.) But interesting enough, even though nearly two million people showed up to watch the event live in Washington DC, there were no arrests today. No riots. No fights. Just a collective sigh of relief as one era came to an end and another began.

It took almost half a century, but finally America realized the dream of Martin Luther King, Jr. And we did it without bloodshed and violence.

I hope it is a good omen. For us all.