Saturday, January 01, 2011

2010 Predictions Revisited

I shared a couple of predictions with friends last year. Thought I'd revisit them and see how well or how poorly I did. Have to follow up later this week with some new predictions for 2011.


  1. Prediction: Real Bank Reform - I was hoping the current administration would come up with substantial reform, akin to the safety of Glass-Steagall Act. Instead we got a nudge nudge wink wink and flimsy reform that does nothing to diminish the power of exotic financial grifts such as the explotation of interest rate differentials, arbitrages, naked short-sales, collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps, and other swindles based which create no value whatsoever.

    Grade: Pass, but barely.
  2. Prediction: U6 Unemployment stays above 15% - Our elected officials love to diminish the true depth of unemployment by citing the U3 report. U3 measures the number of people actively collecting unemployment benefits. But once benefits are gone, a person is off the U3 list. So there are millions of people without a job, but the government doesn't care to mention them and the media doesn't make light of the scam. Real unemployment is measured by the U6 report. And for 2010, the U6 report revealed not only did unemployment stay above 15%, it was actually above 16% the whole year.

    Grade: Pass.
  3. Prediction: The Great Depression V2.0 becomes a classic "double dip recession" in 2010 - I thought the lapse of "Cash for Clunkers" and the end of "First Time Homebuyer" cash would make GDP tumble into negative territory. But that didn't happen. Even though unemployment stayed high, foreclosures stayed high, and the general mood of the country was poor, we did not technically re-enter a depression.

    Grade: Fail.
  4. Prediction: DOW drops into 5000 territory - Not even close, here. The Fed did a great job propping up Wall Street fatcats while 1 in 6 people were unemployed, 1 in 8 people will deal with or have dealt with a foreclosure, and 1 in 6 kids live below the poverty level. The illusion of growth was maintained and investors continued to play Three Card Monte with our 401Ks and pension funds.

    Grade: Fail.
  5. Prediction: - Real Estate continues to suck in 2010 - Inventories went up. Foreclosures went up. Prices went down. In my world, that all amounts to a big dish of suck.

    Grade: Pass.
  6. Prediction: The current administration continues to miss the mark - I figured the POTUS would continue to disappoint me in 2010. Couple of good moves (Don't Ask, Don't Tell, 9/11 responders.) Bunch of bad moves (Flawed Health Care Reform, deficits, tax failure, financial reform failure.) Overall, I personally feel like he missed the mark, at least by my measure.

    Grade: Pass
  7. Prediction: The minority party continues to block and jeer - Probably not a fair prediction because the minority party is always going to do this. However, one day our politicians will work together instead of against each other. Not likely during my lifetime.

    Grade: Pass
5 out of 7. That's not bad. Right? Anyway, welcome aboard, 2011. Glad you could join us. Don't worry, I'll make some predictions for you, too. In due time, though. In due time.
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